Country polling guide

Portugal polling guide

Context for Portuguese legislative vote-intention polling, district proportional representation, current local groupings and smaller-party limits.

Last reviewed 9 Oct 2026

Open Portugal tracker

Overview

This tracker records published nationwide voting intention for elections to the Assembly of the Republic. It keeps party observations and source dates visible, while the local summary provides only a way to navigate the current party field rather than a prediction of government.

Electoral system context

Most deputies are elected proportionally from multi-member territorial districts, with separate constituencies for voters abroad. District magnitude and vote distribution affect how national support becomes seats, especially for smaller parties whose support is spread thinly or concentrated.

Party and bloc rationale

The local balance groups PS, LIVRE, CDU and Left Bloc against PSD-led lists, CDS, Chega and Liberal Initiative. PAN, JPP and others remain outside. The grouping is Bismuth's country-specific navigation aid and is not an official alliance or an internationally comparable political score.

The current source’s PSDAD series represents AD. CDS is a constituent and is not added a second time. Historical standalone CDS figures remain in the archive. See [the 2025 coalition decision](https://www.tribunalconstitucional.pt/tc/acordaos/20250272.html).

Polling limitations

Pollsters may test alliances or list labels differently, and national percentages cannot reproduce district allocation or overseas voting. Small-party values are sensitive to rounding and sample design, while missing source periods and unreported party values are left absent rather than estimated.

Bloc summaries use complete paired polls within 45 days of the latest archive record, weighted by recency and sample size. Both sides use the same eligible polls. The tracker and map show the number of complete polls and their supporting date, which can precede the latest archive record; missing parties are not assigned zero. The comparison’s latest-poll balance is a separate individual observation.

Sources