Country polling guide

Germany polling guide

Context for German federal second-vote polling, proportional seat allocation, party thresholds, the local balance definition and long archive changes.

Last reviewed 14 Aug 2026

Open Germany tracker

Overview

The German archive follows published federal party support, principally the second-vote measure used in Bundestag polling. Stable party keys allow long-run comparison, while declared source transitions and party changes remain visible rather than being smoothed into one uninterrupted narrative.

Electoral system context

Voters cast constituency and party votes in Germany's mixed-member system, with the party vote central to proportional allocation under the current federal rules. Threshold and constituency provisions matter for representation, so a national polling value alone is not a complete seat calculation.

Party and bloc rationale

The local balance groups SPD, Greens and Left against Union, AfD and FDP for the sourced period; BSW stays outside the comparison. The grouping is Bismuth's country-specific navigation layer, not a coalition forecast, an official classification or a universal left-right scale.

Polling limitations

Polling organisations differ in sampling and treatment of small parties, while reforms to electoral law and changes in party competition affect interpretation across decades. Historic tables can also change labels or source structure, so the tracker preserves gaps and never treats missing support as zero.

Sources