Country polling guide

Bulgaria polling guide

Context for Bulgarian parliamentary vote-intention polling, proportional seats and thresholds, repeated elections, local balance and short coverage.

Last reviewed 9 Oct 2026

Open Bulgaria tracker

Overview

This tracker records the comparable nationwide party-vote polls available for Bulgaria's published election period. The archive is short and election-specific, so it is presented as a bounded body of evidence rather than a continuous long-term measure.

Electoral system context

National Assembly members are elected proportionally from multi-member constituencies, with a national threshold for ordinary parties and coalitions. District allocation, votes for lists below the threshold and the separate treatment of none-of-the-above responses affect how published support relates to seats.

Party and bloc rationale

The local balance groups the published PB, BSP and PP–DB keys against GERB, Revival, DPS, ITN and MECH, while APS, Velichie and others stay outside. The grouping is a Bismuth navigation aid for this period, not an official coalition or international ideology ranking.

The reviewed PB-inclusive grouping begins at the coalition’s 3 March 2026 registration and ends at the 19 April election. Earlier prospective-project polling is retained as source evidence but does not enter this registered-list balance. MECH is included in the right-side label as well as the calculation. See [the Central Election Commission registration](https://www.cik.bg/bg/decisions/4528/2026-03-03).

Polling limitations

Repeated elections, party splits and coalition labels make cross-cycle comparisons unusually fragile. The small number of rows magnifies individual pollster differences, and national values cannot reproduce constituency allocation; unsupported dates, missing parties and disputed source changes are not filled or silently accepted.

Bloc summaries use complete paired polls within 45 days of the latest archive record, weighted by recency and sample size. Both sides use the same eligible polls. The tracker and map show the number of complete polls and their supporting date, which can precede the latest archive record; missing parties are not assigned zero. The comparison’s latest-poll balance is a separate individual observation.

Sources