Aotearoa New Zealand · current cycle + historical archive

New Zealand polling

New Zealand’s nationwide party-vote polling record, from the current campaign back through successive election cycles.

124 days until election day

Party vote over time

Dots are individual polls. Lines show the selected trend when enabled.

78%
44%

Parties

Pollsters

New Zealand party vote polling in 2026 An interactive chart of published political opinion polls by party and fieldwork date.
Loading long-term archive… Hover or focus a dot for details. Trendlines break across long polling gaps and election markers use exact dates.

Method & maintenance

Methodology

The headline average uses polls ending within 45 days of the latest fieldwork date. Polls are weighted by recency (a 30-day half-life) and the square root of sample size, so one very large poll cannot overwhelm every other result. The chart can also switch to a wider smoothing window when you want a calmer line.

Trendlines are descriptive, not forecasts. Missing values are left out rather than treated as zero. Polling error, house effects, turnout and electorate wins all mean that this is a snapshot—not a prediction of election day.

The browser loads public polling tables from MediaWiki, beginning with the newest election cycles, and caches them locally for seven days. A small checked snapshot is bundled with the site only as a fallback, so the page remains useful during a network or source outage.